Sunday, April 19, 2009
Barron's calls for a bottom in Oil
Some are anticipating the return of higher crude oil prices. In their January 26th edition Barron's ran a cover story saying "Buy Oil". Thus far, those who followed this venerable publication's advice have not been rewarded, as Oil has been flat to slightly lower since the article ran.Thus far, those who followed this venerable publication's advice have not been rewarded, as Oil has been flat to slightly lower since the article ran.Often, cover stories featuring major predictions/calls by more "mainstream" publications like Barron's, Business Week, etc, have been good contrarian indicators -- meaning the articles have been wrong. It seems that by the time a major publication features a particular business trend, the trend is near the tail end of its run. Like many business trends, the stock market is a discounting mechanism and by the time an editor is convinced to dedicate a cover story to its magazine, the trend has likely been played out. This is even more likely to be true when trends hit the mainstream non-business media. For example, the large number of stories about how to become a Day Trader came at the height of the Internet Bubble, and the large number of reality TV shows about "flipping houses" that emerged just as the Housing Bubble was about to burst.
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